Ad-supported mobile content revenues will exceed $1 billion by 2015, eMarketer estimates, with the fastest growth coming from ad support for mobile video.

Last year, US mobile video revenues from advertising reached just $37.5 million, but by 2015, advertisers will spend $213.6 million on placements that support mobile video content. Despite such rapid growth, that figure will still be lower than the amounts spent on advertising against mobile games and mobile music, at $65.3 million and $181.4 million, respectively, in 2011 and rising to $269.1 million and $591.5 million, respectively, by 2015.

That year, eMarketer estimates, 29.9% of all mobile content revenues, or $1.07 billion, will come from advertising.

Ad support as a share of total mobile content revenues will grow for each of the three content types over the forecast period. Currently, mobile music has the greatest share of dollars coming from ads, and it will hold that position, with ad dollars making up 73.9% of the total in 2011 and 79.3% by 2015.

But the fast growth of mobile video ad revenues will mean much more substantial changes in revenue composition. While ad dollars made up just 5.4% of mobile video revenues in 2011, by 2015 that figure will more than triple, to 16.5%.

Mobile gaming ad revenues will also rise as a proportion of the total, albeit more slowly, from 13.8% in 2011 to 17.4% by 2015.

eMarketer forms its estimates of mobile content spending through a meta-analysis of data from dozens of research sources as well as overall trends and consumer behaviors around mobile gaming, music and video.

Half of smartphone users have now scanned a QR code at least once, according to research from Chadwick Martin Bailey, but findings suggest marketers have still not proven their value to consumers.

As QR codes pop up in more places, awareness of them is growing, and many users seem to learn what they do before learning what they are called. Chadwick Martin Bailey found that while just 21% of internet users surveyed had heard of QR codes before, more than four in five knew one when they saw one.

QR codes are becoming hard to miss, even for those without a smartphone. Data from mobile marketing firm Nellymoser indicates that well over 90% of the top 100 magazines in the US have featured at least one mobile barcode since May 2011; as recently as November 2010, just 9% had. The proportion of ad pages in those magazines that now feature mobile barcodes hovers around 5%.

That doesn’t even touch on the presence of QR codes in outdoor advertising, in-store signage and packaging, or business cards—all among the top places smartphone users have scanned QR codes from, according to Chadwick Martin Bailey. With QR codes seemingly all around them, smartphone users’ top reason to scan one was out of simple curiosity (46%), followed by the hope for more information (41%).

These results may give marketers pause. As 2-D barcodes become ubiquitous, people are learning what they are: something to scan with a special app on a smartphone. But as awareness develops, the novelty factor may be in danger of wearing off. Marketers will have to prove there is valuable information in store for QR code scanners—perhaps a coupon or exclusive content—or those who scan a few times out of curiosity may not develop a scanning habit.

Companies often have several different accounts or pages on social networks like Facebook and Twitter. As these accounts and the interactions with customers on social media increase, program managers must learn to balance the influx and continue to interact with fans.

The Altimeter Group surveyed social media program managers in Q2 2011 and found that, on average, companies owned 178 total social media accounts, not including individual employee accounts. This includes an average of 39.2 Twitter accounts, 31.9 blogs and 29.9 Facebook accounts. Forums and message boards were more popular than YouTube, with an average of 23.4 accounts per company, compared to YouTube’s 9.4.

This can be a challenge for a company, as it is harder to oversee and manage that many accounts throughout the enterprise. Companies often have different accounts or blogs for different departments or regions, and integrating their outreach with the same style, tone and guidelines is difficult.

Another challenge is how companies will manage the increase in customer conversations taking place on these various platforms, as users turn more often to social media for brand connections. Monitoring several social networks, different accounts and pages, and responding to comments take time and resources.

Of the social media program managers surveyed, 59% said they will streamline the internal processes for handling social media conversations, 44% want to empower the crowd to respond to each other and 33% will streamline with new technologies. But nearly as many did not know how they would respond to an increase in customer conversations online.

Coordinating across various social media accounts is important for a company, as it allows a team or individual to manage, simplify and improve the social media process. Additionally, educating employees and developing internal processes and guidelines are also helpful.

Despite some bright spots on the economic horizon, shopping remains more of a battle than a pleasure for financially skittish consumers. Some of them cope by using digital tactics to help save money.

A SymphonyIRI Group MarketPulse survey on how the economy affects behavior and attitudes when buying consumer products found that US consumers were more optimistic in Q4 over Q3 2011, but still relied on frugal habits developed during the recession.

For example, 39% of survey respondents downloaded coupons from manufacturer websites in Q4, while 37% downloaded coupons from retailer websites, up slightly from 35% for both activities in Q3. Twenty-seven percent researched products on websites, an increase of 3 percentage points from Q1.

Dubbed “downturn shoppers” by IRI to describe the way they approach grocery shopping in a prolonged downturn, these consumers increasingly view digital as an important tool, but rely on traditional offline methods more. Some 55% used coupons in Q4, and 49% checked newspaper circulars. Those numbers, already high, have been steady since Q3.

“What we are finding is that consumers are holding on to the old way of doing things—clipping coupons and circulars—but they are using the internet as an incremental way to save money,” said Susan Viamari, head of consumer insight market polls at SymphonyIRI.

Armed with coupons and sales promos, consumers continue to do research via their smartphones while in-store. A WSL Strategic Retail study cited by Internet Retailer showed that 56% look to their devices to compare prices in-store, while 46% continue to seek coupons or discounts and 53% use their photo feature to snap images of products.

The lesson for retailers and manufacturers facing this diversity of consumer tactics is “use media that complement each other,” SymphonyIRI’s Viamari advised. “Communicate with both traditional and digital media.”

US online ad spending will post growth well above 20% again this year to reach nearly $40 billion, eMarketer estimates, as the internet continues to prove its worth to advertisers in a tough economic climate.

“Advertisers’ comfort level with integrated marketing is greater than ever, and this is helping more advertisers—and more large brands—put a greater share of dollars online,” said David Hallerman, eMarketer principal analyst.

Double-digit growth is expected through 2014, when US online ad spending will reach $52.8 billion. In 2016, eMarketer expects advertisers to spend $62 billion online.

Fast growth has put online ahead of some traditional media, especially print newspapers and magazines. This year, US online ad spending will exceed the total spent on print magazines and newspapers for the first time, at $39.5 billion vs. $33.8 billion. And as online shoots up, the print total will continue to inch downward.

Spending on TV, however, appears largely unaffected by the growth of online. As internet ad spending rises, so will TV—albeit more slowly, and from a larger base. eMarketer estimates TV will grab $72 billion in US ad dollars in 2016, $10 billion more than will go online.

Overall, eMarketer expects total media ad spending to grow 6.7% this year to $169.5 billion, boosted by national election campaigns and gains in mobile spending. Growth will be in the 3% to 4% range for the remainder of the forecast period, with spending reaching nearly $200 billion by 2016. Online will be a major driver of that growth and will represent nearly a third of total media ad spending that year. Traditional media ad spending—aside from a few bright spots, like TV—will stagnate during the forecast period.

From the early days of the internet, the prospect of detailed metrics fueled the promise that online advertising could yield unprecedented insights about customer preferences and behavior. That promise has only partially materialized. True, online channels provide feedback that offline media cannot, but marketers are still grappling with how to make this input work toward the bottom line.

They may have a long way to go. The Econsultancy report “The State of Social Media 2011” noted that 41% of marketers surveyed had no return on investment figure for any of the money they had spent on social channels as of October 2011. Further, only 8% could attribute ROI for all their investments in social media. The survey sample was primarily UK companies, with some representation from other territories.

A 2011 MarketingSherpa study noted that only 20% of US agencies and consultancies surveyed said their clients thought social media marketing was producing measurable ROI. However, 64% said clients were confident that this form of marketing would eventually deliver a return and were willing to conservatively invest in it.

In August 2011, the top method used to measure the success of social media marketing campaigns was tracking the numbers of people linking as friends, followers and “likes,” according to a Chief Marketer survey. Much further down the list was tracking incremental sales attributable to social media.

In 2012, marketers will need to focus more sharply on hard metrics to gauge digital and social marketing ROI. They will be pushed in this direction by economic and competitive forces, and by rising expectations from internal stakeholders who are more interested in the bottom line than in creative experimentation. Up until now, marketers have been content to dabble in digital and social marketing out of curiosity or peer pressure. But as stakes get higher, these media will have to provide concrete business benefits.

For more information on marketing developments expected next year, stay tuned for the forthcoming eMarketer report “Top Trends for 2012,” available to eMarketer corporate subscribers only — emarketer.com

The ad market in China is growing in importance, but just like in the US, different geographies can play a role in how brand messaging is received. Local differences in media usage become even more important in areas where consumers don’t have a long history of watching video content in general, let alone ads.

eMarketer predicts total ad spending in China to hit $45.9 billion next year, an increase of 19.8% over 2011. TV continues to receive the lion’s share of ad spending, but according to a new study by Starcom MediaVest Group, time spent with traditional TV is taking a back seat to video content viewed on computers.

Starcom MediaVest Group’s Yangtze study, one of the first media usage studies of this scale conducted in lower-tiered cities in China, found that internet users in Tier 3, 4 and 5 cities and towns spent more time per day online than watching TV. Tiers were developed by marketers in order to classify the cities and regions throughout the vast country, ranking from megacities like Shanghai and Beijing (Tier 1) to cities of 3 million or fewer (Tiers 3, 4 and 5).

The study encompassed users ages 13 to 45, and a closer look at the demographics reveals that internet users aged 19 to 30 spent almost twice as much time online as watching TV.

Users are also turning to the web for video entertainment. When breaking out time spent with video by source, video watched on computers was the most popular overall, and accounted for the most time spent by users in all of the tiers except for those in Tier 1 cities. There, mobile devices edged computers out by almost a tenth of an hour, or roughly 6 minutes per day.

Expanding choices of entertainment have come hand in hand with more exposure to ads, but in many cases consumers do not have the basic media literacy to recognize what an ad is and what it is trying to do.

For example, a joint study by Millward Brown and Warc found that a conceptual video ad that tested well among Tier 1 and 2 cities failed to register with consumers in lower-tiered cities in China. They missed the message of the ad and what it was selling; as a result, they were left confused by the ad’s narrative.

How do marketers overcome this lack of ad literacy in China? The Millward Brown and Warc white paper recommends taking marketing back to the basics: Avoid conceptual themes and feature products prominently throughout.

Additionally, the Starcom data suggests that digital media users in China spend more time watching video on their mobile devices and computers than their TV. These users, true first adopters among their peers, are quickly developing media and ad literacy. Previous research shows that internet users in China are willing to click on interesting branded content. They can be an invaluable base for building brand recognition in Tier 3 cities and beyond in China.

Asian-Americans are avid users of new devices and are among the first to buy tablets and ereaders. They join US Hispanics on the top rungs of the technology early-adoption ladder.

eMarketer’s estimate of US tablet users shows that 14.4% of Asians have used tablets monthly this year, vs. 12.6% of Hispanics and just over 10% of blacks and whites. The gap will narrow as the years pass, but it will take until 2014 for whites in the US to reach the same tablets penetration level as Asian-Americans.

Another study, by the Center for Hispanic Marketing Communication at Florida State University, also found that Asian-Americans have among the highest penetration for both tablets and ereaders. With 14% ereader penetration rate, Asians are about even with Spanish-speaking Hispanics (15%), and a few points behind Hispanics who are primarily English-speaking (20%).

But Asians are on par with Hispanics in possession of tablets, with 17% of both groups reporting ownership.

“US Hispanics and Asian-Americans are very eager to bridge the technological gap and they are proportionately more likely to adopt these devices than non-Hispanic whites,” said Felipe Korzenny, Ph.D., who led the Florida University study.

Asians’ aspirational intentions for these devices are also high, with 35% saying they plan to have tablets within the next year. Spanish-speaking Hispanics have the highest intention to purchase tablets, at 41%. Non-Hispanic whites have the lowest intention to acquire tablets (22%).

Referring to Asians’ high intention to purchase, Korzenny said Asians should be “more interesting targets to marketers because they are much more interested in these products.”

Reasons for early adoption among Asian-Americans, who comprise about 6% of the US population, include that they are more educated than average and have higher annual incomes than other minorities. “And those two factors make them more technologically innovative types of people,” said Korzenny.

And while it’s true this demographic skews young, when Korzenny broke down the data by age, he found out that age makes no difference in emerging-device adoption among Asian-Americans.

Online retailers, as well as other publisher sites that want to encourage visitors to register and sign in as a way to gain information about them, would do well to consider social sign-on, which allows internet users to carry a login from Facebook, Twitter, Google or a similar site elsewhere on the web without having to fill out forms and go through the hassle of a full registration process at each site they use.

Research has shown that making the registration process easier, and giving users options for signing in with any of several different logins, increases sign-ups and conversions. And Facebook, with its massive reach, has become the leading choice for users.

An October 2011 study from social retail recommendations service provider Sociable Labs found that at any given time around half of all visitors to US ecommerce sites are already logged in to Facebook. They may not be using their Facebook login to tie their interests, activities and social graph back into the retailer’s recommendation algorithms—yet—but they are active members of the social networking giant who are currently logged in on the same computer.

And among social network users worldwide, nearly half chose Facebook in a Janrain poll about which social ID they prefer when signing on to retailer sites. That’s higher than the average for signing in to all types of sites across the web, for which 42% of respondents preferred Facebook. It’s also an increase over time for retailers: In Q1 2010, around 40% of social network users worldwide used their Facebook ID to sign in to ecommerce sites.

Fortunately for retailers, a Facebook login carries a wealth of information with it. Alternative login choices such as Twitter might carry with them only a name and the ability to share information about purchases socially. But Facebook will carry over a user’s interests, connections and other vital elements of the social graph, giving retailers the opportunity to create better, more personalized recommendations based on a preexisting login.

In the past, a combination of mass media and traditional local advertising was enough to draw consumers toward a national brand’s local store or service. But as the internet and mobile devices whet consumers’ appetites for immediate and relevant local information, national advertisers are also looking to local online advertising to reinforce their local brand presence.

“Local search, mobile devices, hyperlocal communities and daily deals are gaining popularity with consumers,” said Lauren Fisher, eMarketer writer/analyst and author of the new report, “Local Online Advertising: Digital Trends, Challenges and Opportunities.” “As the go-to digital sources for local information, each offers on-demand access to community news and information and provides brands a distinct way to engage with US consumers on a local level.”

Research firms agree investment in US local online advertising is growing. Some even project it will outpace total online ad spending growth in 2012 and beyond. But just how much advertisers are investing is hard to say as research firms remain at odds on how to define and measure local online advertising.

BIA/Kelsey, for example, defines local online advertising as “any form of advertising that targets a specific, localized audience or location.” This includes search and display ad spend from all advertisers, including small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and national brands spending locally.

MAGNAGLOBAL, however, takes a more narrow approach to classifying local online ad spending, including only dollars spent on local TV, newspaper and radio sites in its estimates. Local paid search and display ad dollars spent elsewhere are not included.

Borrell Associates’ approach is similar to BIA/Kelsey’s in that it includes local ad spending across pure-play sites, TV, radio, cable, newspaper, magazines and internet yellow pages (IYPs). But unlike BIA/Kelsey, Borrell’s estimates do not include national ad dollars spent on local online ad placements.

“With definitions and methodologies so distinct, a true estimate of local online ad spending remains elusive,” said Fisher. “For now, similarities in projected local online ad spending growth and consumer interests remain the best indicators of current and future advertiser investment.”

And what are the primary local online channels consumers are indicating their interest in?

The adoption of local search, mobile devices, hyperlocal sites and daily deals is real and growing as each of these digital sources provide consumers with on-demand access to relevant community information. Their resulting popularity is already drawing the attention—and ad dollars—of national brands seeking meaningful ways to connect with the growing mass of consumers who have made the move to digital.